Electricity Spot Price Forecast by Modelling Supply and Demand Curve

Electricity price forecasting has been a booming field over the years, with many methods and techniques being applied different degrees of success. It is great interest to industry sector, becoming must-have tool for risk management. Most forecast electricity itself; this paper gives new perspective by trying dynamics behind price: supply demand curves originating from auction. Given complexity data involved which include block bids/offers per hour, we propose technique market curve modeling that incorporates multiple seasonal effects known variables, such as wind generation or load. shown model outperforms benchmarked ones increases performance ensemble models, highlighting importance use bids in forecasting.